Edmond De Rothschild投行 3/15/2019全球市场观点

MARKET ANALYSIS – 3/15/2019市场分析- 3/15/2019

Markets recovered from the previous down week. Sentiment was boosted on the Monday after China’s central bank unveiled fresh stimulus measures.
市场从上周下跌的一周恢复。 在中国央行公布新的刺激措施后,周一情绪得到提振。
European data suggested the economy had stopped deteriorating but they still justified the ECB’s caution and thus persistently low rates. US retail sales for January came in better than expected but failed to make up for December’s fall. Mixed indicators -no inflationary pressure and upbeat durable goods orders- again suggested the Fed had adopted the right position. Government bond yields edged higher after a steep fall, but in Europe remained at very low levels. German 10-year Bund yields stayed below 0.1%.
欧洲数据显示经济已经停止恶化,但它们仍然证明欧洲央行的谨慎态度,因此持续低利率。 1月美国零售销售好于预期但未能弥补12月份的下滑。 混合指标 – 没有通胀压力和乐观的耐用品订单 – 再次表明美联储采取了正确的立场。 政府债券收益率在大幅下挫后小幅走高,但欧洲仍处于非常低的水平。 德国10年期国债收益率维持在0.1%以下。
The House of Commons once again rejected Theresa May’s Brexit plan and also any no-deal solution. Instead, an extension beyond the March 29 deadline was approved. Even so the prime minister’s proposal will once again come before Parliament on March 20. Sterling was volatile over the week but ended higher as investors adopted a positive take on votes in the Commons. Meanwhile, uncertainty resurfaced over the outcome of the US-China talks. The Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit was put back to April. The talks are now running late. Moreover, Donald Trump once again threatened Europe claiming there had been insufficient progress in trade talks.
下议院再次拒绝了Theresa May的脱欧计划以及任何无交易解决方案。 相反,超过3月29日截止日期的延期获得批准。 即便如此,总理的提议将于3月20日再次提交议会审议。英镑本周波动不定,但随着投资者对下议院的选票采取积极看法而收高。 与此同时,美中谈判的结果再次浮出水面。 唐纳德特朗普 – 习近平峰会被放回到四月。 谈判现在迟到了。 此外,唐纳德特朗普再次威胁欧洲,声称贸易谈判进展不足。
Economic and political uncertainty has led us to remain neutral on risk assets. We consider that the market has already factored in most of the good news like central bank repositioning, a resumption in the US-China talks and the probable postponement of the actual Brexit deadline beyond March 29.
经济和政治的不确定性使我们对风险资产保持中立。 我们认为,市场已经考虑了大多数好消息,如中央银行重新定位,美中谈判的恢复以及英国脱欧3月29日之后的最终截止日期可能推迟。
European Equities
European equities remained in bullish mood in a week dominated by House of Commons’ voting on Brexit arrangements. After rejecting the no-deal option, a large majority voted to extend the March 29 deadline. The UK government will demand a technical 3-month extension, i.e. up to June 30 if MPs approve Theresa May’s divorce agreement and a longer period if her deal is yet again rejected. European council PresidentDonald Tusksaid he was in favour of a 12-month extension to allow the UK to reconsider its decision to leave the EU.
欧洲股市在一周内仍然处于看涨情绪中,下议院对英国退欧安排进行投票。 拒绝无交易选项后,大多数人投票决定延长3月29日的截止日期。 英国政府将要求技术性的3个月延期,即如果国会议员批准Theresa May的离婚协议,则延长至6月30日,如果她的交易再次被拒绝,则需要更长的时间。 欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克表示,他赞成延长12个月,以允许英国重新考虑其离开欧盟的决定。
Downward earnings revisions continued but markets moved to year highs, wiping out the December sell-off and returning to levels seen at the beginning of October 2018.
In company results, Inditex unveiled a mixed picture of a 4% rise in fourth quarter sales, up from +2% in the previous quarter but still less than expected, and a gross margin that also fell short and resulted in a 120bps drop in operating margins. But the dividend pay-out rose to 17% despite a rise in earnings of only 2%.
在公司业绩方面,Inditex公布了第四季度销售额增长4%的情况,比上一季度增长2%,但仍低于预期,毛利率也出现下滑,导致营业额下降120个基点利润率。 但股息支付率上升至17%,尽管收益仅增长2%。
Growth at Adidas has worsened in recent months. Sales fell 5.7% in the fourth quarter after dipping by 1.3% in the third. The group also mentioned supply chain issues, particularly in North America which is a growth market for the company.
近几个月阿迪达斯的增长情况恶化。 第三季度销售额下降了5.7%,而第三季度下降了1.3%。 该集团还提到了供应链问题,特别是在北美,这是该公司的增长市场。
Casinomanaged to beat expectations in like-for-like growth, trading profit and debt reduction. The group also announced it had raised its asset disposal programme from €1.5bn to at least €2.5bn by the first quarter of 2020 and guided on 10% annual growth in retail profits up to 2021.
赌场在类似的增长,交易利润和债务减少方面成功超越预期。 该集团还宣布,到2020年第一季度,其资产处置计划已从15亿欧元上调至至少25亿欧元,并将零售利润年增长率提高10%至2021年。
Generalialso reported robust figures. Operating profits came in at €4.86bn, or better than the €4.82bn expected. All segments made positive contributions and its solvency ratio rose to 216%, or above the 214% pencilled in by the consensus.
Generali还报告了强劲数据。 营业利润为48.6亿欧元,或高于预期的48.2亿欧元。 所有细分市场都做出了积极贡献,其偿付能力比率上升至216%,或高于市场预期的214%。
In aerospace, amid headline news of difficulties atBoeingdue to its 737 Max model,Leonardobeat expectations and said 2019 would also be better than previously thought thanks to a recovery in the helicopter and electronic defence markets.
在航空航天方面,由于其737 Max模型导致波音遇到困难的头条新闻,莱昂纳多超越了预期,并表示由于直升机和电子防御市场的复苏,2019年也将比以前想象的更好。
US equities
After a tricky start to the month, the market rebounded sharply to hit a fresh year high. Tech and healthcare led the trend, rising by more than 3%. Cyclicals lagged. The Donald Trump- Xi Jinping summit was put back from this month to next with no impact on markets. The US president wants to clinch the deal in person whereas Beijing prefers to finalise most of the details so that the summit can announce the agreement.
经过一个棘手的月份开始,市场大幅反弹,创下新的一年高点。 科技和医疗保健领涨这一趋势,涨幅超过3%。 周期性滞后。 唐纳德特朗普 – 习近平峰会从本月推迟到下一个月,对市场没有影响。 美国总统希望亲自达成协议,而北京则倾向于最终确定大部分细节,以便峰会能够宣布协议。
It was a quiet week for company results. Boeing lost 12% over the week due to the plane crash in Ethiopia and the decision by several countries to ground the 737 Max model involved for the foreseeable future.
WTI jumped 2.4% at the end of the week to last autumn’s levels thanks to an unexpected drop in US inventories. Oil-related stocks largely ignored the news and had one of their worst weeks in a month.
由于美国库存意外下降,WTI在本周末上涨2.4%至去年秋季的水平。 与石油有关的股票在很大程度上忽略了这一消息,并且是一个月来最糟糕的一周。
Japanese Equities
Uncertainties on the global economic outlook weighed heavily and sent the market lower at first before a rebound in the US and China triggered a recovery. The TOPIX eventually gained 1.01% over the week.
在美国和中国的反弹引发复苏之前,全球经济前景的不确定性受到重创并首先导致市场走低。 本周TOPIX最终上涨1.01%。
On the macro front, January machine orders (excluding ships and electric power) plunged 5.4% MoM and were significantly below the market consensus of -1.5%. This is a volatile statistic but is considered to be the leading indicator for domestic capex and private sector demand.
宏观方面,1月份机器订单(不包括船舶和电力)环比下跌5.4%,远低于市场预期的-1.5%。 这是一个波动的统计数据,但被认为是国内资本支出和私营部门需求的领先指标。
Real estate (+3.63%) and power & gas (+3.51%) were among the better performers, notablySumitomo Realty & DevelopmentandKansai Electric Power. On the other hand, foreign demand sensitive sectors such as marine transportation (-1.05%), and rubber products (-0.74%) lost ground.
房地产(+ 3.63%)和电力和天然气(+ 3.51%)是表现较好的公司之一,特别是住友房地产开发和关西电力。 另一方面,海运(-1.05%)和橡胶制品(-0.74%)等国外需求敏感行业则下跌。
Hitachioutperformed on market sentiment that the group might restructure underperforming businesses. On the other hand,Murata Manufacturingsold off sharply. Investors had wrongly banked on it being admitted to the Nikkei 225 Index, prompting speculative buying followed by disappointment.
日立表现优于市场情绪,即该集团可能会重组业绩不佳的业务。 另一方面,村田制作所大幅减产。 投资者错误地接受了日经225指数的承认,促使投机性买盘随后令人失望。
Emerging Market
China’s economy is taking longer than the market expected to bottom out. Industrial and consumption data remained under pressure despite tax cuts and targeted easing measures. Industrial production in January and February continued to be on the weak side with only a 5.3% rise versus consensus of +5.6%, a slowdown from its prior level of 6.2%. Jobless survey results hit a multi-month high of 5.3% in February, but still below the government target of 5.5%. YTD retail sales increased 8.2%, in line with consensus, but below the 9% seen in January. Fixed asset investment, on the other hand, gained traction, rising 6.1% versus 5.9% in January. After a phenomenal run in February, the margin trading balance in the A share market finally took a pause under the pressure of official surveillance of shadow financing.
中国经济所需的时间比市场预期的要长。 尽管减税和有针对性的宽松措施,工业和消费数据依然承压。 1月和2月的工业生产继续处于弱势,仅增长5.3%,而市场预期为+ 5.6%,比先前的6.2%有所放缓。 2月份失业率调查结果触及5.3个百分点的多月高点,但仍低于政府5.5%的目标。 年初至今零售额增长8.2%,符合市场预期,但低于1月份的9%。 另一方面,固定资产投资增长了6.1%,而1月份为5.9%。 经过2月的惊人运行,A股市场的保证金交易平衡终于在影子融资的官方监管压力下暂停。
The Trump-Xi summit for a final trade deal is now expected to be postponed to mid-April or later.Ping An Insurancepublished solid 4Q18 results with 24% growth in VNB (value of new business) thanks to accelerating volumes and better margins. AIA also reported stronger-than-expected VNB growth in 4Q18, driven by higher sales volume in HK/Thailand and significant margin expansion across Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia in the second half. Baozun reported inline results for 4Q18 with 42.8% YoY GMV growth and it revised up its 1Q19 GMV guidance to +55-60% thanks to new brands making a stronger contribution. Food delivery and bike sharing service provider, Meituan, reported a faster than expected deceleration in growth, blaming macro uncertainty and competition. Its breakeven agenda is now expected to be postponed to 2020.
特朗普与最终贸易协议的峰会现在预计将推迟到4月中旬或之后。 由于产量增加和利润率提高,平安保险公布了4季度业绩稳健,VNB(新业务价值)增长24%。 友邦保险还报告4季度VNB增长强于预期,主要得益于香港/泰国的销量增加以及下半年泰国,新加坡和马来西亚的利润率大幅扩张。 宝尊报告了4Q18的内联结果,同比增长42.8%,并且由于新品牌做出了更大的贡献,它将其1Q19 GMV指引上调至+ 55-60%。 食品交付和自行车共享服务提供商美团(Meituan)报告称,增长速度低于预期,导致宏观不确定性和竞争加剧。 其盈亏平衡议程现在预计将推迟到2020年。
InIndia, the Election Commission released its general election schedule. Polling will be conducted in phases from 11th April to 19th May with the final results out on Thursday, 23rd May. The market is turning positive on a potential Modi/BJP majority win given the fact that India-Pakistan tension is helping to increase support for the party. HindustanUnilever said that demand growth appeared to be moderating, which is visible in both rural and urban markets due to a weak macro environment.
在印度,选举委员会公布了大选时间表。 投票将于4月11日至5月19日分阶段进行,最终结果将于5月23日星期四结束。 鉴于印巴之间的紧张局势有助于增加对该党的支持,市场对Modi / BJP潜在的多数赢利转好。 HindustanUnilever表示,需求增长似乎正在放缓,由于宏观环境疲弱,这在农村和城市市场都很明显。
InBrazil, January’s broad retail sales rose 1% MoM (+3.5% YoY) versus consensus expectations of 0.2%. The outlook for consumption remains positive, due to lower inflation, employment growth and increasing loans. The negative remains significant slack in the labour market. BR Malls reported mix results. Operating numbers were better than expected across the board, but there was a one-off negative impact on expenses (labour contingencies). CCR is to bid for the Brazilian airport contract which is good news.
在巴西,1月份的零售额环比增长1%(同比增长3.5%),而市场普遍预期为0.2%。 由于通货膨胀率下降,就业增长和贷款增加,消费前景依然乐观。 负面影响仍然是劳动力市场的重大萧条。 BR Malls报道了混合结果。 全面运营数据好于预期,但对费用(劳动力突发事件)产生了一次性负面影响。 CCR将竞标巴西机场合同,这是个好消息。
InMexico,Walmexhosted its Investor Day with a continued focus on operating efficiencies and an accent on e-commerce and omnichannel strategy. Moreover, the management announced a 5% wage increase for employees, or less than expected, after talks with the union.
在墨西哥,Walmex主持其投资者日,继续关注运营效率和对电子商务和全渠道战略的重视。 此外,在与工会谈判后,管理层宣布员工工资增长5%,或低于预期。
InColombia,Avalreported strong numbers due to better asset quality and acceleration in loan growth.
InArgentina, February inflation reached the high figure of 3.8% MoM, driven by the Peso’s depreciation and higher electricity tariffs.
Brent crude rose to $68 and WTI to $59 with prices even hitting a year-to-date high, returning to last November’s levels. Venezuela’s power outages not only hit its population but also oil production. India’s Reliance (refining) also said it was to limit buying of Venezuelan crude as well as its supplies of diluent (used to fluidify heavy crude) to the country so as to comply with US restrictions.
布伦特原油价格上涨至68美元,WTI价格上涨至59美元,价格甚至达到年初至今的高点,回到去年11月的水平。 委内瑞拉的停电不仅打击了人口,也打击了石油生产。 印度的Reliance(炼油)也表示,它将限制购买委内瑞拉原油以及稀释剂(用于将重质原油流化)供应给该国,以符合美国的限制。
Elsewhere, Libya’s production rose after the Sharara field resumed operations and even hit 1.1 million b/d, its highest level since 2013 and close to its theoretical capacity of 1.2 million b/d. Oil prices also rose after US inventories fell by 10.2m barrels, or more than seasonal norms. The drop will mop up most of the surplus to the 5-year average which began growing at the end of 218. The news had an immediate effect on futures by maintaining backwardation, a contrast with the contango seen at the beginning in January and a typical situation for a market suffering from a lack of supply.
在其他地方,利比亚的产量在Sharara油田恢复运营后上涨,甚至达到110万桶/日,是2013年以来的最高水平,接近理论产能120万桶/日。 在美国库存减少1020万桶或超过季节性标准后,油价也有所上涨。 下跌将把大部分盈余拖累至5年平均水平,该平均水平于218年底开始增长。这一消息通过保持现货价格对期货产生直接影响,与1月份开始时看到的期货形成鲜明对比。 供应不足的市场形势。
This month’s OPEC report had nothing much that was new. Demand continued to rise, adding 1.24 million b/d to 99.96m, split between the OECD (+240,000 b/d, essentially in the US) and non-OECD (+1 million b/d). Non-OPEC growth in supply was revised slightly higher by 60,000 to +2.24 million b/d due to Canadian production resuming. Over the last month, OPEC’s output fell by 221,000 b/d to 30.6m, or close to 1.8m below the October 2018 benchmark. Production had been scheduled to fall by 1.1 million b/d after a drop of 906,000 b/d in February.
本月的石油输出国组织报告没有什么新内容。 需求继续增加,增加了124万桶/天至99.96百万桶,分为经合组织(+ 240,000桶/天,主要是美国)和非经合组织(+ 100万桶/天)。 由于加拿大的生产恢复,非欧佩克的供应增长略微上调了60,000至+224万桶/日。 上个月,石油输出国组织的产量下降了221,000桶/天至3060万吨,比2018年10月的基准水平低了近180万吨。 在2月份下降906,000桶/日后,产量计划下降110万桶/日。
Gold moved back above $1,300/oz after the correction at the beginning of March. Central bank buying remained active with 47 tonnes bought in January. Buying continued in February, notably by China and Russia. Uzbekistan returned to join the buyers as the country plans to increase its gold reserves from 342 to 430 tonnes by 2024.
在3月初的修正后,黄金价格回升至1,300美元/盎司以上。 央行买盘依然活跃,1月份买入47吨。 2月继续购买,特别是中国和俄罗斯。 乌兹别克斯坦重新加入买家,因为该国计划到2024年将其黄金储量从342吨增加到430吨。

Corporate Debt企业债务



In spite of poor visibility on Brexit developments, the Xover tightened by 19bps and the Main by 5bps. The House of Commons rejected the plan Theresa May’s had agreed with Brussels last Monday and also any no-deal solution. Instead, an extension beyond the March 29 deadline was approved.
尽管英国脱欧的开发能力不佳,但Xover收紧了19个基点,而主要收紧了5个基点。 下议院拒绝了Theresa May上周一与布鲁塞尔达成协议的计划以及任何无交易解决方案。 相反,超过3月29日截止日期的延期获得批准。
In company news, Spanish press reports said Salini Impregilo, Italy’s largest building company, had considered bidding for OHL. Italy’s ANSA press agency denied the rumours. Salini is for the moment focusing on a tie-up with Astaldi and said buying OHL was “not on the agenda”. Salini’s listed instruments dipped slightly before bouncing. Energia de Portugal’s bonds performed well after the group unveiled a €6bn disposal plan between this year and 2022 to cut debt and invest in renewable energy. The sales will include its power generation activities in Portugal. Nyrstar’s talks with its creditors are still difficult and the group could be forced to find other solutions like declaring bankruptcy or cutting production if discussions fail to reach a satisfactory conclusion. The news triggered heavy selling of Nyrstar’s bonds.
在公司新闻中,西班牙媒体报道称,意大利最大的建筑公司Salini Impregilo曾考虑过竞购OHL。 意大利ANSA新闻社否认了这一传闻。 Salini目前专注于与Astaldi的合作,并表示购买OHL“尚未列入议事日程”。 弹跳后,Salini的上市乐器略有下跌。 Energia de Portugal的债券表现良好,此前该集团公布了今年至2022年间削减债务和投资可再生能源的60亿欧元处置计划。 销售将包括其在葡萄牙的发电活动。 Nyrstar与其债权人的谈判仍然很困难,如果讨论未能达成令人满意的结论,该集团可能会被迫寻找其他解决方案,如宣布破产或削减生产。 这一消息引发了Nyrstar债券的大量抛售。
Spie’s EBITDA rose 3.1% in 2018, or in line with expectations, after a second half that saw its oil and gas divisions recover, upbeat trading in Germany and a reorganisation in France. The group’s debt fell from €1.53bn in 2017 to €1.35bn, or more than expected. Strong construction momentum in France helped Loxam’s sales and EBITA rise by 8.4% and 7.9% over a year. The group is upbeat for this year and sees further deleveraging. Aldesa’s provisional results were better than expected with net leverage down from 2.1 times in 2017 to 1.6, partly due to the sale of a concession. Sales rose 6.1% and EBIDTA by 2.6% with international divisions contributing 61% to total sales. Casino’s results were in line and the group said financial debt would fall further after it increased its asset disposal plan to €2.5bn by the first quarter of 2020.
Spie的EBITDA在2018年上涨3.1%,或与预期一致,下半年石油和天然气部门复苏,德国交易乐观,法国重组。 该集团的债务从2017年的15.3亿欧元下降至13.5亿欧元,或超过预期。 法国强劲的建筑势头帮助Loxam的销售额和EBITA在一年内上涨了8.4%和7.9%。 该集团今年乐观,看到进一步去杠杆化。 Aldesa的临时业绩好于预期,净杠杆率从2017年的2.1倍降至1.6,部分原因是出售特许权。 销售额增长6.1%,EBIDTA增长2.6%,国际部门占总销售额的61%。 赌场的业绩符合预期,该集团表示,在2020年第一季度将资产处置计划增加至25亿欧元后,金融债务将进一步下滑。
UBSrevised its 2018 full-year results to include an extra €450m in provisioning (15bps in CET1), which represents 10% of the fine imposed by a French court.
The new issues market was busy and the high yield segment in particular.Cemexraised €400m over 7 years at 3.125%.Faureciaraised €500m over 7 years at 3.125% to refund a €500m bridging loan used to acquireClarion. Paper companySappiraised €450m over 7 years at 3.125%. As expected in its 2019 funding plan,UniCreditsold a €1bn AT1 at 7.5%. The issue was very well bid and performed well on the secondary market.Swiss Reraised €750m with a 31-year Tier 2 (non-call 11 years) at 2.534%.
新发行市场很繁忙,特别是高收益率市场。 Cemex在7年内以3.125%的价格筹集了4亿欧元。 佛吉亚在7年内以3.125%的价格筹集了5亿欧元,以退还用于收购Clarion的5亿欧元过桥贷款。 造纸公司Sappi在7年内以3.125%的价格筹集了4.5亿欧元。 正如2019年的融资计划所预期的那样,UniCredit以7.5%的价格出售了10亿欧元的AT1。 这个问题非常好,并且在二级市场上表现良好。 瑞士再保险公司募集资金7.5亿欧元,31年级2级(非通话11年)为2.534%。

Convertibles 可转债
Amid further tightening in high yield spreads and equity market gains, convertibles performed well. US convertibles logically outperformed to match US equity gains.
在高收益率差价和股市收益进一步收紧的情况下,敞篷车表现良好。 美国可转换债券在逻辑上表现优于美国股票收益。
The new issues market remained active with four new deals. As before, they mostly came from the US while the European market remained idle.
新发行市场仍然活跃,有四项新交易。 和以前一样,他们大多来自美国,而欧洲市场仍处于闲置状态。
Euronet WorldWide Inc(electronic payment and transaction services) raised $500m due 2049 at 0.75% and with a premium of 36 % for general corporate purposes, but also the partial repayment of its outstanding 2044 convertible. American Electric Power (electricity and natural gas supplier) raised $700m, and an additional $105m greenshoe, with a 3 year maturity at 6.125% and a 20% premium. The proceeds will go on funding fixed asset investment, including a recently announced renewable contract.
Euronet WorldWide Inc(电子支付和交易服务)在2049年以0.75%的价格筹集了5亿美元,一般企业用途的溢价为36%,但部分还款2044敞篷车。 American Electric(电力和天然气供应商)筹集了7亿美元,另外还有1.05亿美元的绿鞋,3年期限为6.125%,溢价为20%。 所得款项将用于资助固定资产投资,包括最近宣布的可再生合同。
Australia’sDEXUS(property) raised AUD$ 452m over 7 years at a little more than 2% and with a 20% premium. The issue is expected to be rated A- by S&P.
澳大利亚的DEXUS(房地产)在7年内以略高于2%的价格筹集了4.52亿澳元,并获得了20%的溢价。 该问题预计将被标准普尔评为A-。
Brazil’sGOL Linhas AéreasInteligentes announced a roadshow for a placing of $300m in 5-year convertibles (3.75%-4.25% coupon, 30%-40% premium) plus a $14m American Depositary Receipt. The placing is expected to be closed by March 25.Elsewhere, Australia’s AMS (semiconductors) unveiled a partial $100m buyback of its 2022 and 2025 convertibles between end March and end 2019.At the end of the week,Ence Energia y Cellulosa SA(paper) plunged on rumours that Madrid would not renew one of its concessions. The company says this eventuality would have a negative impact of €185m.
巴西的GOLLinhasAéreasInteligentes宣布了一项路演,即为5年期可转换债券配售3亿美元(3.75%-4.25%优惠券,30%-40%溢价)以及1400万美元的美国存托凭证。 此次配售预计将于3月25日结束。此外,澳大利亚的AMS(半导体)在3月底至2019年底之间公布了其2022年和2025年敞篷车的1亿美元部分回购。本周末,Ence Energia y Cellulosa SA( 纸上谈论马德里不会延续其中一项让步的谣言。 该公司表示,这种可能性将产生1.85亿欧元的负面影响。



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